The Reactionary Art of Prognostication

The Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers series sits tied and the pundits are swinging wildly for the fences.

Following an enthralling game one victory in the NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals by the Heat -- one that came in overtime and left experts questioning Pacers head coach Frank Vogel -- the prognosticators sang the praises of the defending champions from Miami.

On ESPN’s flagship basketball program, its four-member panel of experts questioned if the Heat would decimate the Pacers at home in Game Two and would go on to sweep the series.

And then the Pacers won, guided by budding superstar Paul George and the human skyscraper Roy Hibbert.  Whoops.

Now, the analysts are singing the Pacers’ song and putting the team on the precipice of winning the title.  They toss about stats -- the Heat’s role players are shooting 16 percent and Shane Battier is yet to make a shot.  And the experts expect that to continue?  C’mon. 

Can we just settle down a bit?  I think we’re all pretty sure Battier will make a shot or two in the series.  And I think we all know the Heat are the better team.  So why are we so quick to swing predications?

I'm certainly no expert when compared to Magic Johnson and the like, but the Heat were in nearly this exact position last year when down 2-1 to the Pacers in the Semifinals.  The Pacers are a better team this year, but the Heat also won 27-straight games this year.

I'm still taking the Heat.

Image courtesy Business Insider.

Kobe Didn't End My Fantasy Season

Kobe Bryant’s season-ending injury crushed the title hopes of many fantasy team owners.

I didn’t flinch.  And no, I don’t have nerves of steel or a cupcake matchup.  I play in the league that should not be.

Filled with nonexistent owners, minimal competition and a free agent pool abundant with opportunity, this fantasy basketball league is very pathetic.  But it allows me to recover quickly from what should be a devastating injury.

I’ve consistently played fantasy football and baseball for many years, but I’m a relative novice in basketball.  I joined a 10-team league in 2011-12 that was competitive and fun.  But for the 2012-13 season, only six players joined and we were unable to rally to eight or 10 prior to the draft.

Because of this, each team made the playoffs before we even drafted.   Two teams coasted through the regular season as their managers made minimal moves.  Two others checked in from time-to-time to stay competitive.  And my friend Dan and I dominated the regular season and post-season to meet in the championship.

Actually, Dan and I seem to meet regularly in many fantasy postseason matchups and always have close games -- and we’re currently facing off in a 16-category baseball league where we sit tied at eight after seven days.  But now it’s rematch time after Dan stole the 2011-12 basketball championship.

Not Kobe Bryant.  At All.

Before advanced imaging could reveal the full extent of Bryant’s Achilles injury, I dropped the superstar.  And because of the lack of teams in the league and resulting deep player pool, I managed to snag the surging Raymond Felton (88 percent owned Yahoo) to fill the void.

Felton can’t match the frenetic pace Bryant has maintained of late to carry the Lakers.   But I play in a daily league, so I’ve also been dropping and adding players each day to stuff the stats.  With the depth available, I’ve added the likes of Greivis Vasquez (81%), Andrei Kirilenko (72%), Jimmy Butler (36%) and Corey Brewer (31%) to my team.

The results have been promising.  In our two-week championship, I currently lead Dan by a score of six-to-three.  Our categories favor stat stuffing, so I’m going to continue add/dropping players in an effort to win.

Provided I focus on maintaining high percentages in field goals and threes, I should be able to win points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks.  That alone should give me a win, plus I currently lead both percentage categories.  I’ll likely lose turnovers, where I currently have less, and threes may be unreachable.  But a seven-to-two win may be possible, and gives me enough leeway to buy into the stat stuffing strategy.

Bryan’t injury should cripple my team, but I still see a road to my first fantasy basketball championship.

Images Courtesy:  LA.RawSignal.com; and ESPN.com.